Is the Major League Baseball Wild Card round worth it?
Photo by: Forbes.com
By Colin Giuliani, Staff Writer//
On Sept. 28, 2011, Major League Baseball experienced what could be argued as its most electrifying day in history. Four games on the final day of the season had postseason implications. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated said it was, “the most thrilling 129 minutes in baseball history. Never before and likely never again… will baseball captivate and exhilarate on so many fronts in so small a window the way it did Sept. 28, 2011.”
Tony La Russa, the former manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, stated in a 2012 interview, “the tension and compelling finishes to the games [of that day] will be talked about forever.”
In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays needed to win against the New York Yankees and needed the Boston Red Sox to lose to the New York Yankees to make the playoffs as the wild card. Tampa Bay was down 7-0 entering the eighth inning. But, the Rays ended up tying the game on a Dan Johnson home run with two outs left in the bottom of the ninth inning. In the twelfth inning, Evan Longoria hit a walk-off home run to give the Rays the win.
Meanwhile, in Baltimore, the Red Sox had a 3-2 lead over the Orioles entering the ninth inning. Baltimore scored two runs in the ninth inning to win the game 4-3, sending the Rays to the playoffs in dramatic fashion.
Because of the addition of the Wild Card Round the following year, that scenario that played out in 2011 will never happen again.
It is now baseball’s fourth season with the addition of the Wild Card Round. The format of the Wild Card Round is simple. The three division winners automatically advance to the Division Series, while the two wild cards, the best two teams in each league that did not win their respective divisions, battle it out in a one game playoff to determine who gets the fourth spot in the Division Series. When former Commissioner Bud Selig introduced the system, he said, “this change increases the rewards of a division championship and allows two additional markets to experience playoff baseball each year, all while maintaining the most exclusive postseason in professional sports.” After a 162 game season, it comes down to one game- win or go home. Four years into this experiment, has it been worth it?
There are two ways to look at this, dilution and excitement. This was a huge argument when the change was made to expand the playoffs from eight teams to 10. For much of baseball’s history, only the league winners made the World Series, and up until 1995, there was no such thing as a wild card. Has the expansion of the postseason diluted the field? Not entirely.
In baseball, only 33 percent of teams make it to the playoffs, which is the lowest percentage amongst all the major sporting leagues in America. While the field was expanded four seasons ago, it is still a very exclusive field for teams to make the postseason. This is shown by the standings, as the fewest number of wins that a second wild card has finished with has been 88. There are still teams missing out on the playoffs even with this expansion- in 2012, the Tampa Bay Rays finished 90-72 and missed the playoffs and in 2013, the Texas Rangers went 91-72 and missed the playoffs. In 2012, seven teams that finished at .500 or better missed the playoffs; in 2013, six of those teams missed the playoffs and in 2014, five of those teams missed the postseason.
Adding the wild card has not made the playoff field diluted, but has it taken away the excitement from the end of the regular season? Sure, the new wild card system would’ve prevented an event like Sept. 28 from happening, but that’s one of those fluke events that will likely never happen again in baseball history. In most seasons prior to 2011, the four teams in the playoffs were decided prior to the final day of the season. For example, in 2010, the New York Yankees won the American League wild card by finishing six games ahead of the next best team. In 2009, the Boston Red Sox won the American League wild card by finishing eight games ahead of the next best team. And in 2008, the Boston Red Sox won the wild card by six games. The 2011 season was a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated.
This new system has done a great job at increasing excitement, as well as the incentive for winning the division. In 2012, the two wild cards in the National League were the Atlanta Braves (94-68) and the St. Louis Cardinals (88-74). Under the old system, the Braves would have won the wild card by six games and the final week in the National League would have been boring. Instead, there was a race between the Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers that came down to the final few days. In 2013, there was an American League battle that came down to the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers, where three teams were fighting for two spots and were separated in the standings by one game. This season is a great example of why the two wild card system is enhancing excitement. There would be little to no interest in the season entering the final week of the season, as the New York Yankees had a commanding lead as the first wild card. However, in the second wild card, the Astros, Angels, Twins and (to an extent) the Indians were competing for a spot in the postseason. More qualified teams are fighting for playoff spots, which is increasing the excitement towards the end of the season.
The second wild card was subject to criticism when it was introduced back at the start of the 2012 season. However, the field did not become diluted, and the excitement increased with more good teams that aren’t separated in the standings by much fighting for an extra spot. Anytime a league can increase the field, put more emphasis on winning the division, and increase excitement at the same time, it’s a win-win. Four seasons into this experiment, it’s been a resounding success.