Implications of the New Hampshire Primary for the 2016 Presidential Election
By Rock Collier // Staff Writer
It was a night for the outsiders at the New Hampshire primary as a self-described Democratic socialist senator from Vermont and an outspoken billionaire mogul from New York finished victorious in each of their respective primaries.
According to The Associated Press, Donald Trump had a 19.5-point margin of victory in the Republican primary over his closest competitor, Gov. John Kasich; and, Bernie Sanders had a 22.4-point margin of victory in the Democratic primary over Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Based on the results, the American electorate was sending a clear signal to the Washington establishment in both parties.
“It’s a vote against the way things have been,” said Dr. Brandon Lenoir, a High Point University political science professor. “They are the antiestablishment candidates, and they seem to be hitting a chord with a chunk or a slice of the population that is looking for something different, and if that theme continues throughout the other states, that would be the consistent message we would be able to extrapolate from it.”
According to the AP New Hampshire exit polls, 83 percent of Democratic voters who are 18-29-years-olds, 66 percent of 30-44-year-olds, and 54 percent of 45-64-years-olds said they voted for Sen. Sanders. These polls suggest that Bernie Sanders message is resonating better with a much younger audience.
“Free education for students who are racking up a lot of debt right now has to be an appealing message, Dr. Lenoir said. “He’s very much a populist kind of guy. Bernie Sanders is more of a straight shooter and is willing to go out on the ledge, and I think that in a lot of ways what you see is what you get.”
However, his support among millennials, particularly college students cannot strictly be attributed to his populism and his position on college education.
“I feel like Bernie represents a lot of the ideals that I value in humanity,” said junior Tiffany Jones, an HPU student who is a registered Democrat. “His social platform aligns very closely to mine. I think the big difference for me is Bernie being against the death penalty.”
Sen. Sanders also polled surprising well with female voters in New Hampshire. According to the AP New Hampshire exit polls, 55 percent of Democratic female voters said they voted for Sen. Sanders. On the Saturday prior to the Tuesday primary, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said at a Hilary Clinton campaign event, “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!” Dr. Lenoir said these comments would only affect those who already don’t like her. Jones, who was a Sen. Sanders supporter prior to these comments, echoed this assertion.
“I think that’s a very emotional response and that’s a very bloated comment in the sense that there is this woman, who’s this feminist icon who is telling young feminists this is how you should vote,” Jones said. “I think that not only is it an insult to the democratic process but it is an insult to feminism.”
On the Republican side, Trump’s support has comely largely from undereducated voters. According to the AP New Hampshire exit polls, 42 percent of GOP voters who don’t have a college degree said they voted for Trump, and only 30 percent who have a college degree said they voted for Trump.
“We are finding that the bulk of his support is coming from people with a High School Diploma and maybe some college, said Dr. Lenoir. “Donald Trump is more giving you the overarching topics but not really explaining how he plans to do it. He just says believe me it’s going to be great and he moves on, and the people who are supporting him trust him in that sense because they like his charisma and his leadership. I think that the ones that are voting for Trump are more motivated by the emotion and the charismatic leadership.”
This is certainly the case for one student here at HPU who is a registered GOP voter. Sophomore Hannah Huemme who is supporting Donald Trump said, “He is not a politician so he kind of brings something new to the table; he doesn’t play the same games. He also supports himself and isn’t in it for the money; he is there to make America great again.”
Trump’s success in New Hampshire is attributed to the large support he has received for his controversial policy proposal to bar Muslims from entering the U.S. According to a NBC News New Hampshire exit poll, 65 percent of GOP voters support a temporary ban on Muslims entering the U.S.
“Well fear is a powerful elixir and it’s the fear of the unknown, Dr. Lenoir said. “It’s human nature to fear the unknown, and it’s scary when you see the Paris attacks and you see what happened in San Bernardino.”
Huemme is one of those supporters, “I support it because they are not U.S. citizens and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to determine who is and is not innocent. We have already experienced situations here in the U.S. where Muslims who passed ‘background’ checks have killed Americans on our soil.”
Even with the large success Sen. Sanders and Trump have had in New Hampshire, the prospects of attaining their party’s respective nomination is in question. For Sen. Sanders, “Bernie Sanders socialist democratic platform doesn’t resonate as much in the southern states, so it’s going to be a tough road for him for the next week or so as we go into these other states,” Dr. Lenoir said. For Trump, “Were way too early to be saying he is on his way to get the Republican nomination. You don’t win the nomination with 30 percent of the vote.”
Regardless of Sen. Sanders and Trump’s chances of getting their respective party’s nomination, they will be heading into the South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus hoping to capitalize on the momentum from the New Hampshire primary.